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NOAA predice una temporada de huracanes «casi normal» para 2023

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La Administración Nacional Oceánica y Atmosférica (NOAA) emitió su pronóstico de temporada de huracanes en el Atlántico 2023 para la próxima temporada de huracanes el jueves.

NOAA pronostica un rango de 12 a 17 tormentas con nombre en total (vientos de 39 mph o más). De esos, 5 a 9 podrían convertirse en huracanes (vientos de 74 mph o más), incluidos 1 a 4 huracanes importantes (categoría 3, 4 o 5; con vientos de 111 mph o más). NOAA tiene un 70% de confianza en estos rangos.

Esto es después de tres eventos consecutivos de La Niña en 2020, 2021 y 2022. Este año, esperamos que se desarrolle El Niño durante el pico de la temporada de huracanes en agosto, septiembre y octubre. Si bien eso tradicionalmente reduciría la cantidad de tormentas con nombre, debemos tener en cuenta las temperaturas excepcionalmente cálidas de la superficie del mar y el contenido de calor del océano.

El año pasado hubo 14 sistemas con nombre, que es el número promedio de tormentas con nombre. Esas tormentas costaron $ 117 mil millones en daños, siendo el huracán Ian el más costoso.

El próximo mes, la NOAA lanzará un nuevo modelo de huracanes, que eventualmente se convertirá en el modelo principal. Proporciona una mejora del 15 % en la trayectoria y la intensidad en comparación con otros modelos de pronóstico.

Junto con las perspectivas tropicales extendidas a 7 días, las perspectivas de lluvia excesiva se extender

Esto le dará a más personas un aviso sobre el potencial de inundaciones mortales durante los sistemas tropicales.

Como estamos viendo ahora con el “Tifón Mawar” en el Pacífico, la primera tormenta de la temporada puede ser devastadora, por eso es tan importante prepararse ahora.

El administrador de NOAA, Rick Spinrad, les recordó a todos que todavía es imperativo prepararse haciendo un plan y reuniendo suministros para casos de desastre. «Solo se necesita un huracán para impactar a una comunidad».

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